The CarGurus Blog

With a population of 20 million growing at 2 percent a year, Mexico City has long been the smog capital of the hemisphere. It’s the third-largest urban area in the world and has been fighting air pollution with greater and lesser success for years. At the heart of the problem, of course, is the automobile, and specifically the proliferation of old, stinky, polluting taxis.

Now we have a far-out proposal from industrial designer Alberto Villareal for a fuel-cell-powered, drive-by-wire, solar-paneled (on the roof) taxi called MX-Libris (above), which may be just radical enough to do the job. The car won the Red Dot Design Award in 2008, and two Mexican firms have shown interest. Funding would come from the Centro de Transporte Sustentable, which promotes green transport. Go, Alberto!

Toyota FT-EV-II

Why do most electric cars look so ugly and commonplace? Do their designers deliberately turn out plug-ugly plug-ins because of some kind of group-think? These and other questions are delightfully addressed by Alice Rawsthorn in a New York Times piece. They are boring and ugly, she says, because of the problems inherent in new-car design, the reluctance of the industry to experiment and take chances, and the fears engendered by the huge investments required. As ever, however, there can be no reward without risk. Tesla has done it. Why can’t others?

New (U.S.?) Mazda 2

The Japanese want to take the lead in green car technology and production, and they are making noises as if they can and will do it. In particular, Mazda is working on the feasibility of diesels for the U.S. and, not surprisingly, they are looking at VW’s ability to market the diesel here with some success. The Mazda2 might be a diesel candidate, and there has been much speculation on what the 2008 World Car of the Year will look like, what will power it, etc., when it comes here. The car will get to the U.S. most likely in late 2010.

Honda CEO Takanobu Ito spoke out last week to a group of journalists (we mentioned it here) on Honda’s commitment to hybrids, EVs, fuel cells, and a really green, i.e., hydrogen-powered, sports car, “not like the Lexus” (the V10-powered, $375,000 Lexus LFA supercar). Plans include hybrids for the larger Honda models (Accord, etc.), but all this will take time. In any case, the CR-Z is coming soon, and that is good news.

Proof that green technology is catching on comes with the increasing competition for manufacturing facilities. Reva, the Indian carmaker, announced it was opening a plant in upstate New York; the Nissan Leaf will be made in Tennessee as well as Japan; and Fisker is redeveloping a GM plant near Wilmington, which event will naturally be announced by Delaware arch-booster Vice President Joe Biden.

Finally, we were caught up last week by a Wall Street Journal piece on “Five Technologies That Could Change Everything.” One of these is truly pie in the sky (space-based solar power panels), and another would trap and bury CO2 underground. The rest are: advanced car batteries, utility storage, and next-gen biofuels. Each clearly involves the concept of storage, which, as all car gurus know, is what finally, instrumentally, enables our vehicles to move. The costs and engineering challenges will be enormous, but in the end what choice do we really have but to move ahead? Just where to put the bets down will be the first problem.

How about letting us know what kinds of energy topics you would like to see covered in future Green Updates? Please leave us a comment.

—jgoods

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We’re going to give you short takes with headlines today, because there’s a whole lot of news on the green car front. Let’s lead off with Times Online’s Giles Smith, always good for a chortle.

All-electric MINI E is a blast to drive: Giles says the MINI E goes like “the electric clappers” and actually looks like a car (even though the back seat is full of batteries). A group of 20 cars will go out for a six-month trial in England, with 20 more to test next year. There are many unanswered questions about the future of electrics, among them their styling.

The great failure of all electric models to this point has been their weakness in encouraging desire. How much wider a take-up might there have been for the gawky G-Wiz [shown here] if it didn’t resemble something that Laurel and Hardy had just driven through a sawmill? It’s been like the old joke about Superman. If electric cars are so smart, how come they wear their underpants outside their trousers?

Focus BEV to test in London: Ford seems to be on the same page as MINI and is testing out 20 new Focus Battery Electric Vehicles with household drivers for three months. Early next year, a charging infrastructure will be installed. A somewhat different BEV appeared on “The Jay Leno Show” last month.

Michigan needs plug-ins: But it needs the infrastructure and coordinated development, too. Such is the theme of a current Motor City conference with some big-wigs.

“We talk about public utilities. We talk about cars. But we haven’t really talked about them together,” said David Cole, chairman of the Automotive Research Center in Ann Arbor. “What we’re going to be seeing is a merging of these two industries.”

Along these lines, GM’s FastLane Blog has an interesting webchat that featured Tony Posawatz, Vehicle Line Director for the Chevy Volt. We learn particular details about the Volt as well as some considerations about the future of EVs from Felix Kramer of the California Cars Initiative. Worthwhile exchanges in that chat.

There are still plenty of questions about the Volt, many of them critical, as put forward by CNN’s Alex Taylor here. Mainly these focus on cost/benefit issues, and we can’t help thinking the car comes up short.

Nissan’s V-Platform Coming to the U.S., maybe in 2011; to Thailand, India, and China in 2010. And Nissan wants to sell 1 million a year. It’s a low-cost, low-weight car that Nissan’s betting heavily on to compete with the Fiesta, among others—a world car. Nissan also made news by announcing its commitment to a “next-generation battery,” i.e., lighter and less expensive. These will be produced at the New Smyrna, Tennessee, factory and sold to “whoever is interested.” So says CEO Carlos Ghosn.

Infiniti jumps into the electric competition: The firm is reportedly working on a small car to compete with the Audi A3 and BMW 1 Series, as is Lexus. The comments came from an “insider” at the Tokyo Motor Show who also claimed that the new car would share powertrains with the Nissan Leaf (which kind of makes sense).

Honda is also considering going electric, per CEO Takanobu Ito. He still likes hydrogen-powered fuel cell cars for the future, but they will be a long way off. One factor influencing his change in strategy may be the poor showing of the Insight against the Prius, at least in terms of sales.

Toyota Sai hybrid launches in Japan: Showing for the first time in Tokyo this week, the Sai is a larger and more luxo Prius, it seems, and is sister to the Lexus HS 250h, which is now on sale in the U.S. Whether it will come here is not known, but the two very similar cars will compete against each other in Japan. What was that old line about the inscrutable Japanese?

DOE funding for three-wheelers approved: Which means, according to Autosavant, that companies like Elio Motors and Aptera can finally get development money. Three cheers, and let this be a counter to Giles Smith’s complaint about weird styling.

For those people that complain that everything on the road looks the same these days, the rebuttal to your complaint is a three-wheeler. All of the three-wheel vehicles in the pre-production pipe look like nothing else on the road today.

Three-wheeled cars certainly don’t look like anything else on the road today. But should they? Do you want cars that look like cars or like airplanes (the Aptera)?

—jgoods

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For the auto industry, the economics of going green will be very costly indeed, and the costs will come in areas that have hardly been looked at so far. The obvious big-bucks expenses will be in retooling, converting production, developing new-fuels infrastructure, and reinventing dealerships—not to mention the marketing-education efforts required to convert buyers to efficient cars.

I haven’t found much worthwhile analysis of any of these things. We seem to be too busy promoting newer, bigger, more powerful cars. In other words, conducting business as usual.

But as government intervenes (properly or not) to create standards and promote greenness, other even less-noticed costs—sometimes hidden, sometimes not—will be added. The Detroit News has written recently about how newly evolving state and federal standards will change vehicle design and add cost—lots of cost—in order to achieve worthwhile environmental goals.

The paper came down hard on the California Air Resources Board for its “cool cars” rules that require new windows for cars by 2014 to keep out 45 percent of the sun’s energy, thus requiring less air conditioning and less fuel. One problem is that the proposed metal oxide coating interferes with cell phone and GPS use, along with “ankle bracelets for parolees,” of which there are plenty in California.

The initial standard will cost $111 over the life of a vehicle; the 2016 standard will add $250 to the cost of each vehicle. California says it will take five to 12 years for consumers to recoup the costs from reduced gasoline use.

The good part is that by 2020, the Board predicts 700,000 metric tons of CO2 will not be put in the air. That’s the equivalent of taking 140,000 cars off the road for a year. Regarding the communications problem, the Board says let ‘em use antennas.

The new federal fuel standard is going to cause even more problems but, again, with big benefits down the road. Expect lots of opposition from the auto industry. The detnews.com’s first paragraph makes it pretty clear where they stand:

The Obama administration’s proposed standards for fuel efficiency and tailpipe emissions will raise vehicle price tags by more than $1,000, depress sales by 58,000 and cost more than 5,000 auto industry jobs in 2012, a government analysis said Tuesday.

However, the EPA tells us that fleet standards of 34.1 mpg will be required by 2016, tailpipe emission standards will be fixed for the first time, 950 million fewer metric tons of greenhouse crap will not go into our air, and car owners will save some $3,000 in fuel per vehicle. The big number: $60 billion over five years for the industry to implement these regs.

EPA thinks that the plan

will eventually boost auto sales by 65,480 vehicles through 2016 and add 5,795 auto jobs because [of] stronger consumer demand for fuel-efficient models—especially if fuel prices rise. The agency acknowledged, however, that “the possibility exists that there may be permanent sales losses” because consumers may keep vehicles longer as a result of higher prices.

The jury, of course, is still out, and the industry will have its chance to comment (and soften) the proposals. But you can bet they will be enacted in something like their present form. The problem is, as with the healthcare legislation being proposed, nobody can offer a clear, convincing analysis of the cost/benefit equation. We just don’t know enough.

So it seems to be a question of which side has the more compelling case: controlling big costs in the short run or gambling that the long-run benefits have to be worth it. Where do you come down?

—jgoods

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Way back in March we excitedly reported on the possibility of a new sports car co-developed by Toyota and Subaru.

Today we have some news that builds on that excitement, if Toyota’s FT-86 concept (shown above) is indeed the result of this “Toyobaru” partnership. The sports coupe, which will debut this month at the Tokyo Motor Show, was reportedly designed by Toyota but utilizes Subaru’s horizontally opposed boxer engine.

The resulting design is, well… HOT.

Toyota has been in need of something exciting for a long time, which CEO Akio Toyoda readily admits.  The FT-86 concept reportedly seats four and is a front-engine, rear-drive car with a dedicated chassis and Subaru’s 2.0-liter boxer four cylinder engine.

Imagine that baby paired with a 6-speed manual and you’d be crazy not to dream of tearing off the line at stop lights and testing the car’s limits on mountain roads while enjoying primo fuel economy.

Plus, just look at it! Anyone else see a little Aston Martin in the hood? The FT-86 looks sharp, especially in the custom “shoujyouhi” red paint.

And about that paint… check out what Autoweek was told:

Sports cars have to be red, but we wanted a new red,” chief engineer Tetsuya Tada said. “So we came up with shoujyouhi red, the traditional red color of a Japanese monkey’s” backside.

Probably could’ve done without that unfortunate comparison, but I’m still gaga over this new Toyobaru’s looks; even if it’s the color of a monkey’s butt.

If all goes according to plan, the car could be available in 2011 (there’s no guarantee this version will arrive in the U.S., but we hope). Pricing should come in somewhere north of $20K but south of $30K.  I’m predicting a huge sales success as the price, design and performance are sure to provide a heavy dose Toyota excitement.

Would Toyota’s FT-86 concept meet your expectations for a joint Toyota/Subaru sports car?

-tgriffith

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The Cars

We talked about “Volt Contenders” back in March; one of these was the Think City, a less than Volt-sized EV that may be coming to production in the US in 2011. The Detroit News reviewed a pre-production version (around $30K in Europe, not cheap!) and found the car “almost adequate” for driving around the city: good interior space, OK acceleration, easy and quick recharging. The top speed was only 63 mph, however, and so accelerating onto a freeway was something akin to exercising a death wish. Passing? Passing what? But the car is good for the city and for short hops. Still not the “electric car for the masses… [which] no one has offered yet.” Figure another two years at least for that.

Myers Motors has been around for a while. They are trying to make a splash with another pint-sized machine, this one a glorified motorcycle really, again for in-town use. The three-wheeled, two-passenger NMG2 will go on sale late in 2010, and the company is running a contest for a name (no maligna gasolina?). The car has a 60-mile range, will do 75 mph and costs less than $30K. I like it. The letter from Myers’ president (on the website) makes the point that some 70 million people commute alone and drive less than 40 miles to work. That sounds like a reasonable niche market—if they can be convinced to ride in an enclosed three-wheeler.

E-Wolf E2 Concept, Electric Ferrari-killer

E-Wolf E1 Electric Roadster, for 150-lb driver

At the other end of the madness scale is a concept from German firm E-Wolf called the E2, supposedly to evolve as a supercar in two years (544 hp, 2000 lbs, “to compete with the likes of Ferrari in the performance arena”). Well, guys, judging from the E1 which was shown at Frankfurt (150 hp, 1100 lbs, “can only accommodate drivers weighing up to 150-pounds”), you’ve got a ways to go.

More practical, maybe, is Volvo’s move to put more plug-in hybrids on the streets and a fleet of test cars. The firm announced it would start selling plug-ins by 2012 and showed a V70 with two charging ports—one in front for home charging, the other at the rear for fast-charge (1.5-2.5 hours) stations.

The Power

In order to get electric cars to a sizable market, you must have power companies that not only feed the grid but use the product. Otherwise, it’s a Catch-22. The New York Times reports that

FPL Group, the company that includes Florida Power and Light, and Duke Energy, which serves 11 million people in the South and Midwest, together operate about 10,000 vehicles. And they said this week that by 2020 all new purchases of fleet vehicles will be plug-in hybrid or all-electric.

Clearly, that is putting one’s money where one’s mouth is. The ridiculous situation with ethanol is just the opposite: Farm-state senators (Ben Nelson, D-Neb., among them) are pushing to increase the amount of blended ethanol in gasoline to 15 percent, while the automakers are fighting it, citing the many cases where too much ethanol damages or disables engines.

It isn’t bad enough that we use corn almost entirely for ethanol, which is terrible for all kinds of environmental, agricultural and economic reasons. The industry has been totally unwilling to commit to biofuels or cellulosic ethanol, and is now getting set to inhale some $787 million in federal money for biofuel research, which it would not do on its own. Instead of priming the biofuel pump, federal money is serving as a substitute for private capital and encouraging the farm states to continue their misguided policies. End of rant, for now.

Applause, however, for GM which announced last week that it was partnering with the Reva Electric Car Company of India to develop the market for electric vehicles in India. Well, why shouldn’t they, you ask, with over a billion people as a market? RECC, we understand, has done work on infrastructure, biofuels and has test marketed electrics in many countries as well as India. Working on alternative propulsion strategies and fuels, GM has also reached out to world markets. It could be an ideal combination: Volts in Mumbai!

How soon can we expect EVs to penetrate the market for short-commute cars in our cities? We know you have an opinion.

—jgoods

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Aptera 2E

Imagine heading to Best Buy and picking up a Blu-Ray DVD player, a 52″ LCD TV and a new electric vehicle.

At first it might seem crazy, but think about it for 30 seconds and you’ll realize that a large electronics box store selling the ultimate electronic appliance just makes sense. I mean, Best Buy sells washers and dryers so why not electric cars?

According to this, rumors persist that Best Buy will indeed make the jump into electric vehicles, which already sells electric bikes and scooters in Los Angeles.

Here’s what’s even cooler: the futuristic-looking Aptera 2E is featured in a Best Buy promo video here, raising the possibility that the Aptera folks and the Best Buy folks are busy creating an alliance. It’s certainly not a done deal, but the possibility of going somewhere other than a traditional car dealer to buy a new car could revolutionize how cars are sold.

I’d expect that if the rumor ever becomes true, Best Buy would need to invest in an entire maintenance system to keep new cars in good running order. Or even better, outfit the Geek Squad with the tools and knowledge to come to customers and make repairs without ever requiring a trip to the maintenance shop.

What do you think: is it a good idea for Best Buy to sell electric vehicles?

-tgriffith

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We thought it would be worthwhile to give you a weekly update on what’s happening in the world of green cars—by which we mean hybrids, diesels (bio- and others), electrics of various stripes—all energy-efficient vehicles, in other words. So your humble correspondent has taken on the daunting task of providing news, resources, websites, and commentary in an area which right now is just exploding.

The big news this week has to be the spectacular plug-in hybrid 2+2 BMW Vision EfficientDynamics concept, powered by a 1.5-liter three-cylinder turbodiesel and twin electric motors. One motor, placed between the engine and transmission, couples with a second that drives the front wheels. Net output is 356 hp and 590 lb-ft of torque. The company claims 0-62 mph in 4.8 seconds and 62.6 combined mpg. We claim to be impressed.

The only U.S. car we can compare it to is the Volt, which is like comparing a hog to a racehorse. Both cars will use lithium polymer battery systems, but BMW’s is lighter and more efficient, recharging on 220-volt current in just 2.5 hours. There’s a good discussion here of the technology involved.

Unlike the Volt, which is designed to give its full performance from the electric drive system, the BMW concept gets its full capability from the blended power delivery. The concept is able to run about 31 miles on electricity alone and complete the NEDC test procedure on electricity. The efficiency of the diesel engine means that the 6.6 gallon tank can propel the car another 400 miles. The electrical energy consumption of the concept is 28.16 kWh/100 miles which compares to the claimed 25 kWh/100 miles for the Volt.

Not only is it gorgeous (though you can bet a production version won’t look quite like this), but the car represents a kind of engineering prowess that we just don’t seem able to master here in the U.S. With a few exceptions, the Asians and Europeans are clearly beating us to the punch.

The most viable green car prototypes developing here seem to be coming from Tesla and Fisker. The former company claims that its Model S (right) electric sedan in one year will use three new battery packs to give it a range of 300 miles before recharge. Present batteries give 165 and 230 miles of range. The Model S will become real, we hope, for $57,400 (and a $7,500 federal tax credit) in late 2011. But there’s a whole lot of “iffiness” with this car.

Fisker’s Karma (right) will cost anywhere from $87,900 to $104,000, depending on model, and seems to be in some ways further along than the Tesla S. Henrik Fisker told Autopia he wants to build 100,000 cars a year and has ambitious plans to do so. The car was recently seen at the Rolex Monterey Historic Races and did one lap. Stepping out, Henrik! The Karma seems like basically Volt technology in a much more attractive package.

Other News from Abroad

Chinese automaker BYD says it will bring an all-electric EV sedan to the U.S. next year. The car will cost around $40,000, seat five, and have a 250-mile range. Warren Buffet is an investor.

The Japanese are not idle. Nissan’s Leaf, as tgriffith told us, is promised for the U.S. in 2010. Honda, it was reported, has committed to selling electric vehicles in the U.S. “early in the next decade,” which is surely the loosest of commitments, but they will have an enormous market here. Last week there was noise about some kind of minicar coming by 2015.

Finally, we learned that the German government plans to put $705 million into electric vehicle technology, and you can bet that will be the tip of the iceberg. Besides BMW, Volkswagen aims to have its first all-electric cars on the market in 2013. The lesson in all this? Where is the U.S.?

How are we going to play catch-up to the rest of the world in creating outstanding electric car technology? Give us your thoughts.

—jgoods

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The ultimate gas-saving strategy

A group called the Alliance to Save Energy has paired up with NASCAR and the Indy Racing League to sponsor a clever contest. They invite anyone to submit a two-minute video that illustrates one or more of the Drive Smarter Challenge campaign’s gas- and money-saving tips. They’ve got dozens of these, ranging from turning off the air conditioning to curbing your road rage.

Gas prices are creeping up again. But you know lots of reasons to save energy. If you need some prodding, here is a list of six. Now get smart and create a clever video about how to do it.

The first 80 people who submit valid entries (mention that you saw this story on CarGurus) will receive a $25 ExxonMobil Gift Card and a Car Care Council Car Care Guide. Entrants will also be eligible for some really cool prizes. Contest judges will select the finalists, and the public will vote for the winners.

• Grand Prize: $5,000
• Second Prize: Choose between one VIP NASCAR Race Package (two tickets and two garage/pit passes to a NASCAR race event) OR one VIP Indy Racing League Package (two tickets and two garage/pit lane passes to an Indy race event, plus a ride in a specially modified Indy car driven by a pro driver)
• Third Prize: Whichever second-prize package hasn’t been chosen
• Fourth Prize: A set of 4 Michelin Energy Saver All Season Tires (or comparable tires for the winner’s vehicle), a one-year AAA membership, and two Silver Spoke League of American Bicyclists memberships.

Send a copy of your video submission to blogideas@cargurus.com so we can feature the best contest entries!

—jgoods

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2010 Porsche Boxster S1

We’re going to do a little speculating here. But these thoughts are not blue-sky blah-blah; they are based on what has been reported in the last few days about Porsche. It seems to me that the company may be in big trouble, and here are the reasons.

With Volkswagen planning a full merger with Porsche by 2011, CEO Martin Winterkorn is putting the heat on to get the volume up—big-time. We recently reported that Porsche has been given a well-nigh impossible sales goal of 150,000 cars per year by 2012. With the company presently selling 75,000 cars a year, such a requirement means: a) lowering prices, adding incentives, etc., or b) making some newer, cheaper models for a wider market.

With its debt load reaching close to $9 billion, Porsche will find these alternatives hard to execute. Winterkorn says he wants a new car smaller than the Boxster, a junior Cayenne, and some kind of new Panamera. Maybe he’s talking about the BlueSport roadster (below) for the former, which would be nice.

So our brother/sister bloggers are speculating about zingy new cars, which of course is what Marty wants them to do. But the reality is that Porsche’s (and VW’s) stock is doing badly; there is actually a glut of inventory, with dealers holding more than 100 days’ supply of 911s, Caymans, and Boxsters; and production has been cut back.

The Truth About Cars reported these problems, and its commenters were quick to add their two cents:

As I recall, Porsche almost bought the farm the last time we had a recession of this magnitude (late ’80s, early ’90s). The mortgage brokers, stockbrokers, realtors and other assorted financial hucksters that bought these [cars] are now waiting tables at TGI Fridays.

Others pointed out that Porsche’s cars have been overpriced for years. Another, looking at figures on AutoTrader, found that “Porsche sold just 651 new 911s last month if you total up all the various configurations.” From this to 150,000 units a year??

My son, who is not a financial huckster, owns a 2004 911-C2 and told me he needed two new rear tires, again, at about $300 per. They last only 10-15,000 miles. Then there’s the regular Mobil-1 12-quart oil change that will run you around $200, including filter and labor.

You know the old saw attributed to J.P. Morgan: When asked about the cost of buying a yacht, the financier replied, “If you have to ask, then you probably can’t afford it.” It would be a shame to see Porsche go the way of Morgan’s yacht.

Do you think we’ll see newer, cheaper Porsches? Or devalued, less-expensive Boxsters and Cayennes?

—jgoods

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The end of Cash for Clunkers

Cash for Clunkers is over.

More than 625,000 vehicles were sold as a result of the program, so I can’t imagine anyone who wanted to take the government up on its $4,500 offer missed out. Needless to say, the Cash for Clunkers program was hugely successful at luring people into dealerships to buy new cars.

But without the program, what happens next? Who will buy new cars now?

Well, guess what – I have a prediction: Auto sales will languish once again, and dealers will have one heck of a hard winter trying to sell enough cars to keep their heat on. The recovery of the auto industry will probably take even longer than it would have had the government just kept their hands off.

I don’t think Cash for Clunkers actually increased auto sales, I think it condensed auto sales into a single month. Which means the next few months are going to hurt for dealers and auto manufacturers.

Americans just binged on buying cars. The binge made us feel good. It gave us a sugar high of sorts that quickly spread across the country, resulting in even more binging. Now comes the big crash.

The fact that Ford, GM, and Chrysler all increased production of fuel-efficient vehicles made popular by Cash for Clunkers, combined with no more government assistance for consumers, means we’ll soon see an overstock of cars on dealers’ lots with no one to buy them.

Somehow dealers are going to have to lure people into their stores without powerful rebates, and we’ll be right back where we started.

Was Cash for Clunkers worth it?

-tgriffith

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